Final "FL Rep/Dem Race for Gov.'06" Poll... Crist lead narrows to 8.6% from 14.7%
Our fourth and final "FLORIDA Rep/Dem Head-to-Head Race for Governor 2006" Poll has Crist now leading Davis by 8.6%. This is a decline from the 14.7% lead that Crist enjoyed just a month ago. In late September, Crist led Davis 52.3% to 37.6%. The race has now tightened to 50.4% to 41.8%, but the differential remains outside the margin of error. GOP Communications' Florida Poll Projections – Oct. 27-31, 2006: Crist-Rep vs. Davis-Dem vs. Others /// FL Poll Results: Based on "Extremely Likely" Florida Registered Voters...
The single inquiry ---> Who would you be most likely to vote for-- [ROTATED: Crist-Rep, Davis-Dem, Another Non-Rep or Non-Dem]? As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Crist-Rep, Davis-Dem, Another Non-Rep or Non-Dem]?
The polling model: We have a computer model of the 2004 electorate in FL that created a pool of 46,990 voters who always vote (each primary and general cycle)... This overall pool was compared to 2000 census #s and 2004 census estimates and broken down into county by county voting results in 11/2004 to give us a core group of 1332 extremely likely voters that is an exact computer model replica of those who voted statewide in 2004.
The Florida Gubernatorial Ballot: (Oct 31st 2006 Results)
Crist-Rep 50.4% (671)
Davis-Dem 41.8% (557)
Others 1.2% (16)
Undecided 6.6% (88)
Margin of error: +/- 2.85% (38)
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ABOUT OUR ACCURACY: Our Final FL Poll Projection (10/25/04) was accurate to 0.35% for our Kerry/Edwards assessment and to 1.65% for our Bush/Cheney assessment. Each was well within our 2.85% margin of error. We are not aware of any final 2004 poll that was more accurate.
